PUSD Enrollment (Photo – PUSD)
Enrollment projections help the school district make many decisions, including where to spend bond monies, and how many staff will be issued layoffs. It is therefore very important that the board have the latest and most up to date enrollment numbers when it makes such decisions.
By Diane Orona
Demographic firm’s presentation was missing current data
At its November 16, 2023 board meeting, the Pasadena USD Board of Education asked its demographics consulting firm to re-present a forecast for 2023-24 through 2029-30. This forecast was done after enrollment was determined in October 2022, but it didn’t contain any updated data from October 2023, even though enrollment is determined in October. I asked for the “norm day” school enrollments, but they were not available until staff certified them. To its credit, the consulting firm included the following caveat:
It is difficult to forecast enrollment after a significant event like the pandemic. Enrollment trends usually take three to four years to become discernable [sic] and predictable.”
Fall 2023 enrollment much higher than forecast
After PUSD certification on December 14, I noticed that they do not show nearly the severity of declines forecast by the consulting firm. I looked at recent enrollment data for 21 schools whose enrollments were part of the firm’s forecast (see pp. 45-49 of the PDF). For 16 of 21 schools, the actual October 2023 enrollments were higher than the forecasted enrollments, from 6 students higher for Webster Elementary to 150 students higher for John Muir High.
Pupil Count
The firm had forecast a decline in enrollment for PUSD of 609 students from 2022 to 2023. Comparing October 2022 actual enrollments with October 2023 actual enrollments, the actual enrollment decline was 199 students from October 2022 to October 2023. Twelve of PUSD’s schools increased in enrollment, from an increase of 5 for Octavia Butler Magnet Middle to an increase of 121 for John Muir High. Eleven decreased in enrollment, from a decrease of one student for Marshall to a decrease of 254 for Pasadena HS.
As a longtime PUSD employee now retired, I am very happy that the enrollment decline was much less than forecast. PUSD has a large variety of great programs and schools to offer the public. As the district’s annual open enrollment program window opens early this year, I hope that more families will apply!
Diane Orona is the former Manager of Administrative Services for Pasadena Unified School District.
[This article has been updated to include pupil count figures. Jan. 4, 12:05 pm]
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