California Latino Voters Pivotal in Deciding Balance of Power in U.S. Congress

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The Latino Community Foundation (LCF), in partnership with BSP Research, announced the results of its latest poll of Latino voters in California’s five competitive congressional districts.

By News Desk

These congressional districts will be key to determining which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives next term – and Latino voters make up a big part of each district. The congressional districts included in this poll are:

• CA-13 (Merced) – 50% of all eligible voters are Latino
• CA-22 (Bakersfield) – 59.4% of all eligible voters are Latino
• CA-27 (Palmdale) – 33.3% of all eligible voters are Latino
• CA-41 (Palm Springs) – 30% of all eligible voters are Latino
• CA-45 (Fullerton) – 23% of all eligible voters are Latino

Significant findings of the poll include:

• When asked about their congressional candidate choice for 2024, the Democratic challenger holds a lead ranging from +22 to +36 over the Republican incumbent. Specifically:
• In CA-13, Democratic challenger Adam Gray leads Rep. John Duarte 46%-26% with 28% undecided.
• In CA-22, Democratic challenger Rudy Salas leads Rep. David Valadao 57%-21% with 21% undecided.
• In CA-27, Democratic challenger George Whitesides leads Rep. Mike Garcia 54%-24% with 22% undecided.
• In CA-41, Democratic challenger Will Rollins leads Rep. Ken Calvert 51%-28% with 21% undecided.
• In CA-45, Democratic challenger Derek Tran leads Rep. Michelle Steel 52%-30% with 19% undecided.
• When asked about the top issues facing the country, Latino voters in each of these districts overwhelmingly cite cost of living, housing costs, and concerns over jobs and the economy.
• In addition, on critical policy issues, approximately 3 in 4 Latino voters across these five congressional districts stated that they would be more likely to vote for a candidate they who supported a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, extended child tax credits for families with children, and a law to guarantee abortion access for women who need it.

In the 2022 Midterm Elections, approximately 38,000 votes were the total vote differential between the Democratic and Republican candidates in these five districts.

“Latino voters in California’s competitive districts will play a crucial role in determining the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives,” said Julián Castro, CEO of the Latino Community Foundation. “The choices Latino voters make this election season will produce a Congress that either affirms or rebuffs the next president’s legislative agenda,” Castro continued.

“In five closely watched congressional districts, Democrats have a clear advantage with Latino voters, and the GOP messages do not appear to be having much effect,” said Dr. Gary Segura, lead researcher for the poll. “Nevertheless, Democratic issue positions are still running ahead of Democratic candidates, and there is a large undecided cohort in these five seats. The size of these margins is not historically high and both parties have an opportunity to do some more work,” Dr. Segura continued.